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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd