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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current race is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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