A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
